What is the general trend of iron ore price in the future? Will it affect the price of steel?
Nearly 10 years with the rising iron ore prices, iron ore costs in steel production costs accounted for about 40%-50%, iron ore prices directly related to the rise and fall of steel prices, here, we analyze why iron ore prices rise year by year? What is the general trend of iron ore price in the future?
As we all know, China is an iron-poor country with low domestic iron ore reserves and low grade. This has resulted in a high degree of dependence on foreign iron ore by Chinese steel companies, and this situation is difficult to change.
Customs data show that in 2020, China's total imports of iron ore 1.17 billion tons, foreign dependence reached 82.3%. In 2021, China will import 1.12 billion tons of iron ore, down 3.9% year-on-year. However, China's iron ore imports reached 184.67 billion US dollars, a significant increase of 49.3%. Imports set a record high since China's iron ore imports. The average price of imported iron ore is as high as $164.3 / ton, also a record high.
According to statistics, in the 10 years from 2012 to 2021, the total amount of iron ore imported in China reached 9.97 billion tons, spending a total of 967.6 billion US dollars in foreign exchange (equivalent to 6.2 trillion yuan), from the perspective of external dependence, since 2014, China's iron ore external dependence exceeded 80% for the first time, iron ore external dependence remained high. There were no more years below 80%, and 2016, 2017 and even more than 90%.
China's iron and steel enterprises not only rely on imported iron ore, but also have a high degree of import concentration. China's iron ore imports from 18 countries around the world, but 80% from Australia and Brazil, of which Australia accounted for 67%, Brazil accounted for 13%.
Why is the price of iron ore so high and rising every year? We have to start with the four biggest iron ore companies in the world.
The four iron ore giants - Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG - account for 16.5% of the world's proven iron ore reserves and 55% of global iron ore production. Among them, Vale is the world's largest iron ore company, located in Brazil, and the other three are the world's second, third and fourth largest iron ore companies, all located in Australia. They not only monopolize iron ore, they monopolize supply, they also monopolize the pricing power of iron ore worldwide.
China, as the world's largest importer of iron ore, has no pricing power, and another reason is that steel companies are too scattered, the import procurement behavior of each company is scattered, and each signed a contract with the four giants, each said his own words, so naturally lost the right to speak in the international iron ore market.
From 348 yuan/ton in February 2016 to 1667 yuan/ton in May 2021, an increase of nearly five times in just five years, and the ox is soaring. So, how to change the status quo of the iron ore market? How to get the pricing power of iron ore?
At present, the international market is widely used for iron ore procurement pricing benchmark is Platts index, and futures prices, Platts index is not the price of market participants trading transactions, but based on telephone inquiries, emails and other ways to collect data calculated by the evaluation value, data collection is not transparent, and easy to be manipulated.
Therefore, the relevant parties in China are actively studying the launch of the domestic port iron ore RMB spot price index, based on 61% grade iron ore powder, the use of futures market trading, to promote the international influence of China's index pricing, hoping that the index will be launched as soon as possible to help enterprises reduce import costs and reduce the risk of large fluctuations in steel prices.
Another step is to find alternatives to mines in Australia and Brazil, and the good news is that China is preparing to develop two of the world's largest iron ore mines. In 2009, a giant iron ore mine was discovered in Dadaigou, Benxi city, Liaoning province. According to the latest data, the iron ore reserves are 13.61 billion tons, ranking first in the world. On June 24, 2009, as soon as the news came out, the Bensteel plate even pulled two daily limits.
In fact, so far, there is still controversy about whether the Dataigou iron ore is mined or not, and the Dataigou iron ore is of high grade, pure mineral, and the grade is between 24% and 61%. However, the iron ore buried at a depth of 1,000 meters, extending to nearly 2,000 meters, are rich iron ore deposits. Such deep iron ore, mining out will not lose market competitiveness due to high costs?
当年，中南大学一位采矿专家接受《中国证券报》记者采访时表示，大台沟铁矿技术上有难度，如地应力、地温、岩爆问题，但这些因素不会影响铁矿开采。目前，国内辽宁红透山铜矿开采深度已经达到1300米，安徽的东瓜山铜矿1100米深。而南非的一家金矿开采深度更是达到4000米。
2021年本溪市在政府工作报告指出，2021年重点工作中确定大台沟铁矿建设项目，2021年完成探矿权转让，2022年开工建设。
距离西安仅100公里的商洛市柞水县小岭镇，拥有一座中国最大的菱铁矿，储量达5.02亿吨。目前，正在建设的800万吨/年的菱铁矿生产系统，将使陕钢集团大西沟矿业的选矿能力达到1000万吨，铁精粉的生产能力达到300万吨以上，成为我国大型矿山之一。
大西沟铁矿是原国家冶金工业部储委批准储量3.02亿吨的大型菱铁矿床。由于低品位菱铁矿在国内尚无大规模开发利用的先例，2004年初项目单位委托长沙矿冶研究院对大西沟低品位菱铁矿进行了半工业试验，主要选别指标已接近磁铁矿和赤铁矿，并达到菱铁矿选别国内外先进水平。
据最新数据显示，陕西大西沟铁矿经过科学选矿，铁矿石品位可以到达61.3%，回收率也高达80%以上，已经成为国内品位最高的铁矿之一。
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